It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

We've all heard that the regular season in the NBA is a marathon and not a sprint. I suppose that is true, but the marathon is certainly run at different speeds. Just look at a teams like the Celtics, the Heat, the Thunder, and the Clippers. Each of these four teams has a very different approach to this regular season. Not only do games have varied meanings for these franchises, but the entire season does. For a recent example, look at the 2009-2010 Boston Celtics and the 2009-2010 Oklahoma City Thunder.

Very few people believed the Celtics would come within one quarter of winning the title when the playoffs began. They limped into the playoffs and had been anything but dominant when the regular season ended. But they knew the regular season wasn't about being killers, but was about remaining healthy. Had they been healthy the year before, they probably would have made the finals in consecutive years. With this in mind, they worried more about being able to play as a full squad than seeding or placating their fan base. (To see how put-off their fan base was at the end of the regular season last year check out ESPN's Bill Simmons' playoff predictions. Simmons is an unabashed Celtics fan and had virtually given up on the team.) And their strategy worked. They had a fantastic run in the playoffs and came awfully close to winning the Championship.

As for the Thunder, the regular season had a whole other meaning. They were one of the youngest teams in the NBA and were trying to build winning habits that would endure for seasons to come. Each game had a distinct meaning for them. They wanted to be the team that tried hard on every play and molded their young players into winners. These things can't be accomplished with players and coaches taking nights off. They were not the only team in this category, but they were pretty successful running their operations this way.

So what about this season? Where do teams fall in the "What Does This Regular Season Mean?" hierarchy? Here is my take:

The "Paycheck Please" Teams (These guys are showing up for the paycheck and that is about it. Don't expect much of a fight from any of these franchises. They are going to be bad and ugly.):
Memphis Grizzlies
Sacramento Kings
Charlotte Bobcats
Cleveland Cavaliers
Detroit Pistons
Toronto Raptors

The "Young Guns" Teams (These franchises have young players that could take them to the next level. This is motivation enough to not completely give up on things, but they are not going to be extremely competitive yet. This season is about gaining experience and learning the game. They will try hard most nights and the absolute best case would be sneaking into the playoffs.):
Los Angeles Clippers
Washington Wizards
New Jersey Nets
Golden State Warriors
Minnesota Timberwolves
Milwaukee Bucks

The "Trade Piece" Teams (These teams have pieces they hope to use in a trade. In essence, each game is a chance for the players to showcase their skills and for management to make sure they look good. This usually doesn't result in consistent winning):
Houston Rockets
Philadelphia 76ers
Denver Nuggets

The "Middle Men" Teams (These teams know who they are. They are good enough to compete, but not good enough to do anything really memorable. The regular season for these teams is going to be uneven. Some stretches will result in winning and will temporarily build their confidence and other stretches will be harsh reminders that they are not going to compete for a championship.):
Atlanta Hawks
Indiana Pacers
Portland Trailblazers
Phoenix Suns
New Orleans Hornets

The "Building for the Future" Teams (These teams are going to play really hard each night. They are young, but have some experience and will probably be the elite teams in the future. Each game is a chance to build towards this goal.):
Chicago Bulls
Oklahoma City Thunder

The "Something to Prove" Teams (To these teams, the regular season means the most. Each of these teams has something to prove. It may be proving that a trade or free agent signing was worth it or it may be trying to prove that you belong in the discussion with the elite franchises in the current NBA. Whatever the reason, these teams will play hard most nights and will achieve very good results in the regular season, relatively speaking. This may result in playoff success, but it isn't a lock.):
New York Knicks
Orlando Magic
Miami Heat
Utah Jazz
Dallas Mavericks

The "Scoff at the Regular Season" Teams (Although these teams may experience a lot of success in the regular season, they could really care less. The only thing left for these teams to accomplish is getting another ring. With that in mind, superstar players will not go hard all the time or they may play reduced minutes. What this really means is that passing judgment on one of these teams based on the regular season is meaningless. Just like the Celtics of '09-'10.):
Boston Celtics
Los Angeles Lakers
San Antonio Spurs

It is fun to sit and wonder which team is better at the turn of the new year, but remember that the regular season takes on different meanings for each team.

Age Limit? Age Limit.

With a potential lockout looming, the NBPA is looking for ground to stand on. They are proposing rolling back the player age minimum from 19 to 18. This stance is something I simply don't get. The role of the NBPA is to represent current NBA players... so why would they want to hurt the careers of their more veteran class by inundating the league with more players that are young and too green for the league? I'm not entirely sure... They claim that they will try to create incentive for high-schoolers to skip the draft and focus on college, but I'm not sure that tack will work. What incentive can they realistically provide? The age limit needs fixing, and I'm pretty sure without a serious fix, nothing will persuade these kids from skipping college.

The problem is, an age limit of 18 is bad for the NBA, and an age limit of 19 is killing college basketball with so many one-and-dones that A) have no real loyalty to their team and B) make a mockery of the term "student-athlete". As far as the NBA is concerned, having too many high-school kids make the jump in recent years really hurt teams as they were forced to take chances on potential instead of draft based more on real knowledge of skills/game experience. Either way, the rule needs some tweaking. Here is a list of all high-school to NBA players... which includes some very impressive, and some very dreadful names. Even among those who have made All-Star games, it could be argued that their careers would've been just as good if they had played some college ball to refine their skills (think about the 17-year old Jermaine O'Neal, youngest player in league history). Others obviously needed the structure and training of college (Bassy Telfair, Darius Miles) but even I can admit that Eddy Curry + a meal plan = 400... easy.... so maybe it was best that he went pro. Players like Lebron, Kobe, and Chocolate Thunder from the Planet Lovetron were always going to be successful, so I can't argue against their leap from high school to the pros... but it is fairly clear that it isn't the best decision for everyone.

So where do we go from here?

The Supreme Court did away with the old "player must have completed 4 years of college" rule, but I don't understand how the NBA can't operate under the same rule as the NFL, which states that a player must be 3 years removed from graduating high school to enter the draft. However, as a compromise, the MLB method may be the best. Draft players out of high school, they then have the option of signing and foregoing their college experience OR if they are not happy with their draft standing, they can enter college and must remain for 3 years before entering the draft for a 2nd time. This allows "locks" like Dwight Howard, Lebron James, and Kevin Garnett to enter the draft and stay, and marginal picks like James Lang and Korleone Young (who?) realize that a 2nd Round pick's salary isn't that hot, and go to college to refine their games. This also maintains some integrity to the college game, which is suffering under the current system, and would continue to suffer even if players were allowed to jump to the NBA after high school. This way, stars are guaranteed to be there for 3 years, improving overall play and drawing more attention to the game. It isn't perfect, but it is probably as close as we're gonna get.

Give Me Chris Paul

I love point guards. I have an unabashed fascination with point guard play. Maybe it is because I grew up in L.A. in the 80’s and had a chance to see NBA basketball orchestrated by Magic Johnson on a consistent basis. The way he could manipulate a defense was astounding. I suppose that is the reason he went to 9 NBA Finals and won 5 NBA championships. Well, that and playing with guys like James Worthy and Kareem Abdul-Jabbar.

Needless to say, this love of exciting point guard play has me basking in the glow of the NBA right now. Young guys like Rondo, Westbrook, and Rose are so fun to watch and older guys like Nash continue to amaze. And then there are established, in-their-prime guys like Deron Williams and Chris Paul that are playing the position so freakishly well. Personally, I think these guys are the top six at the position. Discussing who is the best point guard in the game today is a fun, impossible-to-figure-out conversation. So, why not have it right here?

It is really hard to compare the games of these six guys because they are all asked to do different things. For example, Rondo doesn’t really have to worry about scoring because he is on such a well rounded team (it must be nice to have three first ballot Hall-of-Famers to play with). On the other hand, Rose has to score because his team is pretty thin offensively (ever watch Noah and Brewer shoot?).

For the record, I think all of these guys are fantastic. To me, the two that seemingly have the biggest weaknesses are Nash (he hasn’t played defense since 1983) and Rondo (my sister has a jumper that is about as consistent as his and my mom shoots free throws better). And Westbrook and Rose are in their third and fourth seasons, respectively, and seem to have a little way to go before they reach their full potential. Williams and CP3 are both well-rounded players that don’t have many weaknesses.

So how do you have this discussion? It has to revolve around efficiency. We have all heard the cliché that the point guard is the quarterback of a basketball team, right? Well, the best quarterbacks have high completion percentages, avoid taking sacks or wasting plays, and throw a lot more touchdowns than they do interceptions. The point guard position is similar, hence the cliché. You want a guy who is effective when he shoots, does not turn the ball over much, and gets the ball back for your team. It is important to remember that basketball is a game of possessions and there are a finite number in the course of 48 minutes. The more you can make out of those possessions (i.e. a made shot or assist versus a turnover) the better you and your team will be.

When it comes to effective shooting Nash, Williams and CP3 are better all round shooters (Field Goal, 3 Point, and Free Throw Percentages) than Rose, Rondo, and Westbrook, although Rose has closed the gap a little this year. Nash is one of the best shooters in the history of the NBA. He has shot 50% from the field, 40% from 3, and shot 90% from the line four times in his career. That is a feat that has been done a handful of times in NBA history and he has done it four times! This season, his shooting is down, but he deserves the credit of being fantastically efficient. Although Williams does score more, CP3 is more efficient than Williams in all three categories and has been for their respective careers. In fact, so far this year CP3 is the most efficient shooter out of the six of these players, including Nash.

Defensively, Nash takes a backseat to the rest of the competition. Again, Nash and defense are not friends. (And, no, it is not because he is small and white. For his career Nash has averaged a paltry 0.8 steals per game and has made a grand total of zero All Defensive teams. John Stockton averaged 2.2 steals per game for his career and made five All Defensive teams. So there.) For their careers, Paul is the only player of these six that averages more than two steals per game. This season Westbrook, Rose, and Rondo are all averaging over two steals per game, while CP3 is averaging a staggering 3.17 steals per game so far (0.8 steals more than Rondo who is in second). As a reminder, this is significant because of the finite number of possessions in a game. CP3 is getting his team more possessions than anyone else via steals. Finally, Rondo and Paul are the only two of these six players that have made an All Defensive team. They have both been selected twice.

(Side note: Even though point guards are not normally expected to get rebounds, it is another way to get your team extra possessions. This may be one of the reasons Magic and Jason Kidd experienced so much team success. Westbrook is the only player out of these six that has a higher career rebound per game average than CP3. Westbrook’s average is 4.9 rpg and CP3’s is 4.7 rpg.)

Lastly and maybe most importantly, point guards are supposed to get the ball to their teammates. All six of these players are good at distributing the ball (they’re all currently averaging over 8 apg), but because of the rule of efficiency, it is important to do this without turning the ball over a lot. If you are constantly giving the ball to the other team, that really hurts. For all the good Westbrook does, he turns the ball over more than four times per game. This means that he is averaging 2.11 assists or positive passes to his 1 turnover or bad pass. In this category, CP3 is the runaway winner. He leads all six players for both career and season assist-to-turnover ratio. In fact, he is the only player of these six that is averaging less than three turnovers per game this season.

All of these players are fantastic in their own right, but CP3 seems to be in another league. He shoots at a higher percentage, gets the ball through steals and rebounds, and doesn’t turn the ball over very often better than the rest of these players. He is wildly efficient. Currently, there are 15 of the 30 NBA teams that having a positive point differential. The average point differential for these 15 teams is 4.45 points. That means the winning teams in the NBA are winning their games by an average of two possessions. If you have a player that treats each possession like it may win or lose the game, you have a keeper and no point guard in the NBA does that better today than Chris Paul.

Trade Time!

The ESPN Trade Machine is one of man's greatest inventions since the dawn of time. It can not be overstated. You simply go online, and right from your desk (couch, bed, toilet) you can become the smartest GM in the world, and turn your team from notties to hotties in a matter of minutes.

However, in the real world, trades generally have to be beneficial to both teams (excluding any Gasol to the Lakers trades, or anything else done by Chris Wallace) and those trades are harder to come up with.

Lish and I came up with the following trades over the past couple days that could/should happen during the 2010-11 season... and would if we were GMs.

Scenario #1: The Magic send Gortat and Pietrus to Houston for Chuck Hayes and Shane Battier. The Rockets get a real center (with Yao still out, they need to address this or they will continue to stall) that can protect the rim and a valuable bench guy. They could start Brooks, Martin, Budinger/Pietrus (or go small with Lee), Scola, and Gortat. The Magic get a serviceable backup center and one of the best glue guys in the league. This would allow them to play small again (which seemed to be their best trick when they made the finals) with Lewis at the 4 and Battier at the 3. Plus they are already a good defensive team with Howard roaming the paint and throw in Battier and they would be even better. Battier could guard Wade, James, Pierce, or Allen better than Pietrus and Gortat is way better than any center option the Rockets have.

Scenario #2: This trade will only happen after the Grizzlies have realized they aren't going anywhere again (maybe Jan. or Feb.) and they are way over the cap for a team that is struggling financially. To dump some salary they send Mayo, Thabeet, and Tony Allen to the Mavs for Caron Butler and Stevenson. This provides cap relief for the Grizz and gives the Mavs and darn good, young guard in Mayo. Sure they have to eat Thabeet's contract, but Cuban doesn't mind overpaying for bigs. This gives the Mavs a 2-guard that isn't a ball stopper who has some legit range.


Scenario #3: The Lakers are in danger of overusing Odom and Gasol due to the continued absence of Andrew Bynum. To get some relief and spell the oft-injured big man throughout the rest of the season, Los Angeles needs to flip Sasha Vujacic for former-Laker, current-Knick Ronny Turiaf and Bill Walker. Walker is more or less a throw-in to balance the trade under league rules, as both teams are over the cap. Vujacic ends up in the D'Antoni system, which would seemingly utilize his particular skill set more than the Triangle. The emergence of Shannon Brown makes Vujacic fairly expendable. In return, the Lakers get Turiaf, who knows the system, to give Gasol a rest until Bynum comes back, and then continues to let Bynum ease back into the game before the stretch run in April. The major players in the deal, Turiaf and Vujacic, are both on expiring contracts, so the long-term ramifications are minimal.

Scenario #4: What can Miami do to improve? Will it just take time for Wade and James to fine-tune their games together? Will Bosh ever perform at a level that would justify his ridiculous salary? Well... here at hoopaholics, we're impatient, so we need to make this team better NOW. Per league rules, this trade can't occur until December 15th, but that is mere days away, so in a few weeks, this would work. I don't think Wade and James can ever perform at their highest levels playing with each other. The experiment isn't going to work in the long run. One of them has to go. If Miami deals one, it should be Wade, who is 3 years older and has a lower ceiling than LBJ. I think this proposed deal would actually benefit all 3 teams, creating some fun playoff matchups in the future to boot.

Miami sends DWade to Chicago
Chicago sends Noah and Korver to Miami, and Deng to Denver
Denver sends Chris Andersen to Chicago, and Al Harrington to Miami

Confusing? Yes. Will it work? It should, and could with trade exceptions, draft picks, and cash.

Lineups could look like this:
Miami: Chalmers, Miller, James, Bosh, and Noah
Chicago: Rose, Wade, Brewer, Boozer, and Andersen
Denver: Billups, JR Smith, Anthony, Deng, and Nene

Denver has a replacement when it loses Anthony, Chicago has the best backcourt in the league, and Miami has the best frontline in the league, as Noah covers up all of Bosh's deficiencies.

Now would these teams do this? No. Of course not... but it is fun to dream.